It's Silly to Wait -- 巴菲特和比爾蓋茨在哥倫比亞大學商學院的問答記錄


我一直不太喜歡比爾蓋茨的言談，覺得缺乏新意，令人昏昏欲睡。可是有趣的是每次他和巴菲特坐在一起的時候，都是那麼妙語連珠。

 

昨天，巴菲特和比爾蓋茨出席了哥倫比亞大學商學院的town hall meeting。整個見面會非常引人入勝。如下是我整理的一些精彩問答語錄。




CNBC主持人Becky Quick開宗明義，描述過往百年不遇的一年:

This is a year where the rules have been completely rewritten, where we have thrown out the rule books, and we have seen icons collapse. This is also a time when a lot of people have probably wondered about our way of life.  People in this very room.

1. 主持人問兩人過去一年有沒有對資本主義以及美國人的生活方式產生過懷疑。巴菲特認為

"The country works, you know. We've got 200 years of proof. And it's going to continue to work."

蓋茨則看好美國連綿不絕的創新能力：

“The country still has the best universities, the best science, and we're going to tune our system of capitalism. ”

2. 回答第一個關於貪婪於腐敗的問題時候，巴菲特指出人性亙古未變，重要的是美國依然有優良的制度。巴菲特甚至對在場的哥倫比亞大學商學院學生們表示“I'd love to trade places with any of you”.

3. 蓋茨被問及雷曼兄弟破產的時候有何感想。蓋茨說自己年輕的時候崇拜的兩家企業--王安電腦和Digital Equipment都破產了，加上IT行業見識得多了，所以一家金融公司破產了也沒啥感覺。更何況蓋茨也不明白雷曼兄弟具體的運營，所以打電話給巴菲特：“Should I be worried?” 得到的答案是：“A little bit.”

4.  巴菲特被問到是否應該在商學院裡給學生上倫理(Ethics)課。巴菲特說Ethics在家庭裡學更加有效。順便贊美美國的制度：

“The wonderful thing about it is in this country, is you can succeed magnificently with ethics.  It's not a hindrance. It's a help sometimes. It's a neutral sometimes. But it's not a hindrance at all.”

5. 一位俄裔學生問下一個誕生比爾蓋茨的行業是什麼，因為她想加入這個行業。蓋茨說很可能是能源和醫藥行業。巴菲特則說這個問題根本不重要，

"I will guarantee, you will do well at whatever turns you on. There's no question about that. Don't let anybody else tell you what to do. You figure out what you are doing."

6. Buffett被問及收購Burlington Northern的背後考慮，除了重申鐵路的能源效率外，還提出了新的觀點：

“You think about it. The railroads are tied to the future prosperity of this country. You can't move a railroad to China or India or anyplace else.”

7. 有學生問兩人過往一年有否睡不著覺("What, if anything, keeps either of you up at night?")。巴菲特說：

“I try to live my life so nothing keeps me up at night.”

 掌聲雷動。繼而老巴補充說：

“I don't like to sound, you know, like a mortician during an epidemic or anything, but last fall was really exciting for me. ... There are opportunities for us to do things that didn't exist a year or two earlier. ... The plants haven't gone way. The cornfields haven't gone way. The talent of the American people hasn't gone away. The innovativeness of the next Bill Gates hasn't gone away. This country is going to be fine. "

巴菲特更拋出一個耶穌式的寓言：

“If you had a wonderful farm and you knew that the next 50 years there would be five droughts but there would be 45 good years, I mean, you would not become paralyzed thinking about the five drought years. You would recognize that you've got a system that works very well over time, and that's our American economic system.”

8. 有人問現在全球股市大幅反彈是不是過於樂觀了一些，現在可不可以入市。巴菲特說短期趨勢無法估計，但是舉1954年的美國股市為例，當年美國的失業率急劇上升，但股市卻屢創新高。所以--

“It's a terrible mistake to look at what's going on in the economy today and then decide whether to buy or sell stocks based on it. You should decide whether to buy or sell stocks based on how much you're getting for your money, long-term value you're getting for your money at any given time. ... And the important thing is to have the right long-term outlook, evaluate the businesses you are buying. And then a terrible economy is your friend.”

他加重語氣:

"A period like this gives me a chance to do things. It's silly to wait. I wrote an article. If you wait until you see the robin, spring will be over."

9. 主持人這時候插話了：老巴你不也是買了比亞迪了嗎？您老人家還是很看好其他國家的吧。巴菲特說：

“I see more opportunities in the United States. We're the biggest economy and we're looking for big deals... There are more opportunities in the United States than anyplace else.”

蓋茨大致同意巴菲特，但更加強調中國的美好前景，因為"they are a large enough population that great things are happening there"。

10. 巴菲特在回答關於MBA教育問題的時候大贊其恩師Graham和Dodd:

"They were terrific to me. They treated me like a son."

同時以精明投資者的眼光表示願意當場出10萬美元購買在場任何一個人未來的10%的收入。如果有學生願意提高自己的交際能力的話，那麼這個價格會提過 50%，即15萬美元。“See me after class and I'll pay you 150-thousand.”

這時候主持人秀出巴菲特當年在哥倫比亞的照片。老巴說：

“I don't think I'd pay $100,000 for 10% of that guy.”

11. 一個學生問巴菲特和比爾蓋茨相互欣賞對方的什麼優點。巴菲特說他最崇敬蓋茨對於財富的態度：

“In the end, he knows he's a beneficiary of a terrific society, and not everybody gets the long straws like he and I did.”

蓋茨則敬佩巴菲特的"desire to teach"--

"He loves to teach. ANd he does it meeting with students. He does it in his annual newsletter. He does it when he's taking to me on the phone. It's real gift that I admire incredibly."

12. 能找到自己喜歡做的事情當然好，但是找不到怎麼辦？一個葡萄牙學生發問。蓋茨的回答比較務實--you have to try different experiences.

"And then when you want it, see the thing that you want to be fanatical about and just jump on to that."

巴菲特則說第一重要的是marry the right person--

"It will change your aspiration, all kind of things. It's enormously who you marry."

然後如果你結婚了還不確定自己喜歡做什麼，那麼就不計報酬，找一份自己夢想的工作--

"Go to work at a job that turns you on and a person that turns you on and institution.“

巴菲特舉例自己和Ben Graham工作的時候就是這樣，根本不知道薪水有多少，但是--

"But I knew I wanted to work for Ben Graham. And I knew I would jump out of bed every morning and be excited about what I would do and I would go home at night smarter than I was in the morning."

13. 一個二年級學生問Ben Graham的投資原則是不是已經過時了，巴菲特的回答是否定的，並且重申”the worst investment you can have is cash. “ 一個投資者應該"find a good business and stick with it." 一旦發現好的投資機會，就應該果斷出手--

"Don't push up something that's attractive today because you think you will find something way more attractive tomorrow".

14. 蓋茨認為新興能源行業可能只是曇花一現，現階段不宜沾手:

"...somewhat faddish in nature... a very hot area, but not necessarily a good area for investment"。

15. 問及一個企業領導人應該具有什麼樣的特點，巴菲特說：

"... if the reason for doing something is everybody else is doing it, it's not good enough. If you have to use that as a reason, forget it. You don't have a good reason for doing something. Never use that."

16. 這個問題比較有趣。主持人問巴菲特和蓋茨"what makes you stand out from the crowd?" 巴菲特的回答比較搞笑：

 It's always interesting when Bill and I appear together, they don't figure they can do what Bill does, but they know they can do what I do. 

不過，巴菲特說，他受益於自己的幾個老師，其他的人的話就不怎麼聽了。

"I just look in the mirror every morning and the mirror always agrees with me. And I go out and do what I believe I should be doing. And I'm not influenced by what other people think."

蓋茨則說人的一生中某些自信的時刻很重要：

"When I dropped out of Harvard and said to my friends, 'come work for me,' there was a certain kind of brass self-confidence in that. You have a few moments like that where trusting yourself and saying yes, this can come together -- you have to seize on those because not many come along."

17. 巴菲特認為好的投資需要花很長時間准備和計算，但真正做出投資決定只需要5分鍾："that's 50 years of preparation and five (minutes) of decision making." 而且，"the good decisions...don't take any time at all. If they take time, you're in trouble."

18. 如果美國是一支股票，你會現在買入嗎？蓋茨表示自己會買入。而巴菲特的回答則是：

On margin.

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